Consumer Sentiment for January, 2008 (Revised)

The revised Consumer Sentiment figure for this month (January, 2008):

Predicted: 79.0
Actual: 78.4

The Consumer Sentiment Index is compiled on a monthly basis by the University of Michigan; 500 U.S. households are queried about their own financial circumstances and about the economy in general. 200 questions are asked, e.g. "Do you think that right now is a good time to purchase a major household item, like a new microwave oven, TV set, or a new sofa?"

The Consumer Sentiment Index uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the Consumer Sentiment Index = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as the sample that was polled back in 1966.

The Consumer Sentiment Index is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer insight into consumer spending.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Last month, the Consumer Sentiment Index was 75.5.

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ISM Manufacturing Index for January, 2008

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released their Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) for January, 2008:

Predicted: 47.0%
Actual: 50.7%

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country that are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: when the PMI is above 50%, U.S. manufacturing is expanding; when it's below 50%, the manufacturing sector is contracting.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Last month, the PMI was 48.4% (revised.)

Click here to view the complete ISM report.

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Construction Spending during December, 2007

Earlier today, the U.S. Census Bureau -- which is part of the U.S. Commerce Department -- released the Construction Spending report for December, 2007:

Predicted: -0.5%
Actual: -1.1%

The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in new public and private construction activity for the United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Change from one year ago: -2.3%

Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

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Employment Situation Report for January, 2008

The Employment Situation report for January, 2008 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.226%


Non-farm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +58K
Actual: -17K


Average Workweek
Predicted: 33.8 hrs
Actual: 33.7 hrs


Unemployment Rate
Predicted: 4.9%
Actual: 4.9%

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money, b) unemployment is low and c) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of January 26, 2008

Earlier today, the Labor Department released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week that ended on January 26, 2008:

Predicted: 318,000
Actual: 375,000

The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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Personal Income & Consumer Spending Report for December, 2007

Earlier today, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis released their report on Consumer Spending and Personal Income during December, 2007:

Personal Consumption Expenditures
(a.k.a. Consumer Spending)
Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.2%

Personal Income
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.5%

The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending and Personal Income for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of January 25, 2007

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on January 25, 2007 was released this morning:

Weekly Change: +3,600,000 Barrels

Yearly Change: -31,900,000 Barrels

Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 293,000,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories can translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Click here for a more detailed summary of The Week in Petroleum.

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP) "Advance" Released Today for Q4, 2007

U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers for the fourth quarter of 2007 were released this morning by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis:

Predicted: +1.2%
Actual: +0.6%

The above percentages represent the quarter-to-quarter change in the Gross Domestic Product for the United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy.

The "advance" estimates are based on data that are incomplete or subject to future revision. Next month, the Commerce Department will release a "preliminary" report for the above-referenced quarter, which will contain more accurate data. A "final" GDP report will be released later this year, which will contain the most accurate and authoritative data on the above-referenced quarter.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Redbook Numbers for The Week of January 26, 2007

The Redbook numbers for the week that ended on January 26, 2007 were released this morning:

Redbook Sales Figures: +0.4%

The Redbook measures the weekly sales at chain stores, discount stores, and department stores -- about 9,000 stores in total -- and is therefore an important measure of current consumer spending in the U.S. The above figure represents the year-to-year change in the Redbook sales figures, so sales are up by 0.4% when compared to sales during the corresponding week back in January of 2007.

The weekly Johnson Redbook Index report is produced by Redbook Research.

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for January, 2008

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for this month (January, 2008) was released by The Conference Board this morning:

Predicted: 87.5
Actual: 87.9

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feeling regarding the current U.S. economy, the future of the U.S. economy, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

The baseline "100" score for the CCI is linked to 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is almost always released on the last Tuesday of the month.

Last month, the CCI was 88.6.

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